Jeff Hochman - Vegas Expert Picks - West Coast Wiseguy - SportsLine.com (2024)

Analysis:

The New York Rangers are 6-1 after scoring one goal or less this season, and they have been terrific at MSG. Florida scored only two goals when New York had a goalie in the net. I want to play the Rangers at home after getting blanked all day and twice on Sunday. Florida has a really good team, and the Rangers should be fully focused and make the necessary adjustments to get a split before heading down to the Sunshine State.

Analysis:

The Minnesota Timberwolves had an emotional comeback against the Nuggets at high altitude in game seven. Although Minnesota won 3 out of 4 games against Dallas this season, it's important to note that all four games were played before the trade deadline, after which Dallas significantly improved their roster. Minnesota is ranked 8th in average height, while Dallas is close behind at 13th. I like the Mavericks plus the points in game one!

Analysis:

Brandon Pfaadt is known for being aggressive against hitters, but sometimes that's not beneficial. He ranks in the 89th percentile in walks, according to Baseball Savant, which is considered great. Mookie Betts has succeeded against Pfaadt, going 3-for-5 with a 1.467 OPS in his career. Brandon's ground ball rate is 40.6%, which is below average. It's Mookie Betts Bobblehead Night at Chavez Ravine, and I can't think of a better game for the future Hall of Famer to hit his 9th home run of the season. I also like Betts over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI at -140 odds for 1 unit!

Analysis:

The Zig-Zag system has worked great in this series, as no team has won consecutive games. I think that’s about to change in game seven. The Oilers have out-shot Vancouver 174-132 in the first six games. The Caucks have a -71 shot differential, while Edmonton is +52 in this postseason. The Oilers have five players ranked in the top 25 in postseason points, including Draisaitl, McDavid, and Bouchard, occupying the top three spots. Vancouver has just two players ranked in the top 25 in points. The Canucks will play their 13th playoff game, while Edmonton has played one fewer. I like the road team!

Analysis:

Pitching tends to reign supreme in an early-day game following a night game. In this matchup, both starting pitchers average at least one strikeout per inning. Dylan Cease has held hitters to a .137 average, while Reynaldo Lopez has limited hitters to a .196 average this season. Take the under in game one of the double dip.

Analysis:

The Texas Rangers will be up against a left-handed starter for the second consecutive game. The Angels have a 4-10 record in game two of a series, including 1-5 after a win. The Rangers' third (Lowe) and fourth (Garcia) batters in the previous game went 0-for-8. Texas has seven right-handed hitters in their lineup, and Patrick Sandoval has historically allowed a higher batting average against right-handed hitters (.271) than left-handed hitters (.185). Texas is ranked sixth (+9) in outs above average while the Angles are ranked 29th (-14). I like the Rangers in this spot!

Analysis:

Shohei Ohtani has smashed seven home runs in 85 at-bats at home this season. Tonight is Shohei Ohtani Bobblehead Night at Dodger Stadium. I have often seen many superstars go yard on said players' big night.

Analysis:

The Minnesota Timberwolves are heading home after losing three consecutive games for the first time this season. Denver has shot at least 54% from the field in all three victories. Minnesota will be motivated, as the Nuggets have won both games in Minnesota. Closeout games are challenging on the road. I believe Minnesota will extend this series with a strong performance at Target Center.

Analysis:

Both teams will be playing their fifth game within ten days. The high altitude of the venue will likely benefit the defending champions, especially since they will only have one day of rest. The Nuggets have improved their efficiency, shooting over 50% from the field in their last two victories. Mike Malone and his team have made the necessary offensive adjustments. Denver should be highly focused, given the outcome of the first two games in their home arena.

Analysis:

Carolina has lost three consecutive games by one goal despite outshooting New York in all three games, totaling 129-87. Closeout games are often difficult to win on the road. I still like the Hurricanes to win and force a game five at MSG!

Analysis:

The Carolina Hurricanes return home after two one-goal losses. They are committing stupid, silly penalties that are easily fixable. The Rangers have scored four power-play goals in the first two games. Unacceptable! Carolina out-shot New York in both games, 82-62, and will play with their hair on fire in this must-win game.

Analysis:

Pascal Siakam has scored 19 points or less in five straight games after scoring 37, 36, and 28 in his prior three contests. The Pacers want to feed him the ball more because they are 10-4 when he scores 25 or more points since being traded to Indiana.

Analysis:

After dropping the first game, the Indiana Pacers bounced back with a vengeance in game two against the Milwaukee Bucks in round one. The New York Knicks played three starters for over 40 minutes on Tuesday, but they need more depth and could be playing with "heavy" legs. The road team has a great chance to win outright, so let's take the points!

Analysis:

Kenta Maeda has allowed just one earned run in his past two starts and still has a 6.06 FIP. His biggest issue is that his fastball and change-up are only separated by 7 MPH. The Tigers rank 23rd in OPS vs. Lefties. Logan Allen has a solid 44.3% ground ball rate and should have success against this Tigers’ lineup.

Analysis:

The Atlanta Braves hope to avoid a three-game sweep as they send Max Fried to the mound. Max is a reliable pitcher with an impressive 67% ground-ball rate and a remarkable 25% hard-hit rate. James Paxton has pitched much better at night during his long career and has a 5.55 FIP this season. With a ground-ball rate of 38.7% and a hard-hit rate of 46.8%, it seems like a bad match against this Braves team. James Paxton has also had more walks (22) than strikeouts (15) in the 25.2 this season. Atlanta had just six hits in each of the first two games. The Dodgers' All-Star catcher, Will Smith, does not start in day games that follow night games. Play Atlanta!